Kickoff and stock market returns: A look at Super Bowl history and the S&P 500
February 2, 2018 5:51 PM
Hours after the New England Patriots or Philadelphia Eagles hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the conclusion of Super Bowl LII on Sunday, it will just be another working Monday. As many football fans stumble into work in the morning, so too shall the markets open with many clients possibly looking for some handholding.
While correlation certainly does not equal causation, a light-hearted look at Super Bowl history and the S&P 500 can yield stats that are of interest to football and finance fans alike.
For example, the Patriots are 5-4 in their nine Super Bowl appearances. When New England wins, the average market return in subsequent years is 3.4%, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Philadelphia is 0-2 in their two Super Bowl appearances, and the market's response was indifferent, with an average of a 0% return – losing 4.9% after Super Bowl XV but gaining 4.9% after Super Bowl XXXIX. However, Eagles fans may be pleased to know (OK, they will be pleased) that average returns are 7.7% when the Pats lose.
Whether you're a tried and true member of Pats Nation or flying high with Nick Foles and the Eagles faithful (or just "rooting for" halftime show performer Justin Timberlake), these fun stats can both stoke excitement for the Big Game and keep you in the mindset to return to working with clients on Monday. Because unlike leftover nachos, stats are always still great the next day (and next year).
Click through to read more stats about the S&P 500 and Super Bowl history. All data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
While correlation certainly does not equal causation, a light-hearted look at Super Bowl history and the S&P 500 can yield stats that are of interest to football and finance fans alike.
For example, the Patriots are 5-4 in their nine Super Bowl appearances. When New England wins, the average market return in subsequent years is 3.4%, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Philadelphia is 0-2 in their two Super Bowl appearances, and the market's response was indifferent, with an average of a 0% return – losing 4.9% after Super Bowl XV but gaining 4.9% after Super Bowl XXXIX. However, Eagles fans may be pleased to know (OK, they will be pleased) that average returns are 7.7% when the Pats lose.
Whether you're a tried and true member of Pats Nation or flying high with Nick Foles and the Eagles faithful (or just "rooting for" halftime show performer Justin Timberlake), these fun stats can both stoke excitement for the Big Game and keep you in the mindset to return to working with clients on Monday. Because unlike leftover nachos, stats are always still great the next day (and next year).
Click through to read more stats about the S&P 500 and Super Bowl history. All data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
When the returning champs win, the S&P 500 wins
Bill Belichick's Patriots are five-time Super Bowl champs. When a former champion comes back the next year to win, the average market return is 13.2%.
Big offense, big returns
Throughout Super Bowl history, the median combined final score for each game has been 46 points. In the past 27 years, average stock market returns are 16.6% when the combined score is at least 46 points or more. When the final combined score is under the median, the average market return is just 6.3%.
Good news for Eagles fans
The average market return after a first-time victory is 9.4%. Even better that the Eagles are an NFC team: first-time victors average 15.9% returns, while the AFC only averages 2.2%.
Markets seem to prefer the O.G. conference
The NFL fully merged with the American Football League during the 1970 season, with each league getting its own conference: The NFC and AFC. The market performs better on average after an NFC win: 14.5% versus 8.9% after an AFC win.
Everyone loves a rematch
Fans will recall the last Super Bowl between Philadelphia and New England in 2005 and are excited for a rematch. Following the six rematches in Super Bowl history, the average market return in following year was 18.8%.
Home team advantage?
This year, Tom Brady and the Patriots will dress in white when they take the field as the home team in Minnesota. When the home team wins, the average market return in subsequent years is 16.3% versus only 8.6% when the road team wins.
Shadow under the dome
This year’s game will be played indoors at the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, home of the Minnesota Vikings. Following the 17 previous indoor Super Bowls, the average return was 6.6%. Thirty-four have been played outside and the average S&P 500 return for those years is 14.3%.
Markets are warm to cold venues
When the big game is played in a cold weather city, the average return is 14.9%. The last time Minnesota hosted the Super Bowl, the market had a return of 7.6%.
What are the odds?
Victories by the favored team notched market responses with an average return of 13.1%. When underdogs upset, the average return is 9.6%.
The longer, the better
Everyone loves an overtime game. No matter who wins, stocks respond to post-regulation play with an average return of 16.7%.
