Valuations do not matter – until they do. As the pandemic was in full swing during 2020, green energy stocks and the ETFs that hold them did incredibly well.
Like many other growth stocks in the market, green energy stocks started to go the opposite direction of rising long-term treasury yields in the spring. Investors who had been willing to pay for growth at any cost were suddenly hesitant when treasury yields were no longer at just a few basis points. The rationale goes something like this: if interest rates rise, a higher discount rate is used to value these businesses. And companies valued more on what they will hopefully one day earn far out in the future, such as growth stocks, are worth less relative to companies that earn their profits now when discounted back to a value today.
The 10-year yield on U.S. treasuries went from 0.9% at the start of the year and peaked at 1.7% at the end of March. Although the move was significant because the yield almost doubled, it was nowhere near its
Although the move down may have been justified considering the surge in green energy stocks throughout 2020 and into the beginning of 2021, it may have seemed counterintuitive because of the green energy policy President Biden supports compared to the fossil fuel energy policy his predecessor backed. While the green energy space of the market cratered during the spring, fossil fuels soared. But a similar pattern occurred when President Trump took office. Bank and energy stocks rallied as investors expected deregulation and tax cuts. Still, the
Is the lesson here to go against what seems rational to most investors? Maybe not. Stocks and their valuations get ahead of themselves all the time. If they do, there are generally periods to follow where the stocks come down, and companies must grow into their valuations. If the underlying business is still doing well, and there are tailwinds for the industry in which it operates, the company will likely grow into its valuation. After green energy stocks came down from their highs, they have started to stage a comeback since mid-May, and the valuations in the space seem more reasonable now than they were at the beginning of the year.
Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH), a company that makes solar microinverters, is back to making all-time highs after its 50% drawdown. At the same time, the company’s enterprise-to-sales multiple has gone from 29 times sales at the beginning of this year to 26 times sales now, per Bloomberg. But many stocks in the ICLN and TAN ETFs are still far off their highs, and the ETFs themselves are down more than 20% from their highs in February.
A low valuation is not a good reason to buy an asset. Still, investors should ask themselves if the accelerating green energy trend and the massive drawdown the sector has seen this year does not present a buying opportunity. With world leaders announcing goals of making their countries carbon-neutral in the coming decades at the recent
For comparison, consider the early days of the internet. If you bought Amazon (AMZN) at its IPO in 1997, you saw the stock surge for a couple of years after that. However, you had to endure a 95% drawdown from the peak in 1999 to the trough in 2001. One should not forget that there were also stocks in 1999 that never recovered from their highs and companies that went out of business altogether. Still, there was a great buying opportunity in many businesses after their valuations had come down. The transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy is arguably on par, if not a stronger trend than the internet. Not all green energy companies today are Amazon, but when stocks and valuations come down like they have, yet the underlying trend is still intact, it is worth looking at as investors.