Pension fund managers brace for a risky market, new survey finds

An elderly coupled stressed while talking to a financial advisor.
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A wide majority of pension fund managers are warning that investors could be in for a bumpy ride this year. Roughly 8 in 10 fund managers said that they expect an elevated risk profile in 2025, according to a new online survey from Ortec Finance.The survey, which interviewed 50 senior pension fund executives in the U.S. in November 2024, found that a quarter of fund managers expect their asset and liability risks will "increase dramatically" over the next 12 months.

Fund managers surveyed said that their concerns around asset liabilities are driven by market volatility, regulation and inflation. But market conditions aren't the only cause for concern, the managers said. Rising longevity in older Americans is also raising the risk profile as pension funds are forced to make more payments than originally planned, potentially leading to financial shortfalls.

Financial advisors say those same risks are being felt in their one-on-one planning. Nearly a third of advisors said they expect their clients' risk tolerance to decrease over the next three months, according to data from the February Financial Advisor Confidence Outlook (FACO), a monthly survey of financial advisors and planners by Financial Planning. Roughly half that amount said they expect their clients' risk tolerance to increase over the same time.

Managing client fears in an uncertain market

With the new Trump administration, there's a lot of uncertainty and "headline noise" around the markets, according to Paula Nangle, president and senior wealth advisor at Marshall Financial in Doylestown, Pennsylvania.

One of Nangle's clients, concerned that she was going to lose everything in the market, recently asked if she could put her money in a "virtual mattress," Nangle said. Helping clients concerned about market conditions can involve making adjustments to their asset allocations, Nangle said, but the first step is always having a simple conversation.

"For the most part, it's [about] listening to them and then figuring out what's going to make them feel comfortable," Nangle said. "Sometimes it's, you know, creating a bigger cash cushion so it eliminates that short-term worry. Most of the time, we end up sticking with the plan."

Other advisors share Nangle's approach. 

"Anytime I do talk with a client about their concerns with volatility or inflation, I emphasize the importance of having a structured financial plan that can account for different market conditions rather than having a need to react to short-term headlines," said Ben Loughery, founder of Lock Wealth Management in Atlanta.

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After seeing 20%-plus returns over recent years, it's natural to anticipate a potential pullback at some point, Loughery said. "There are always risks in the market, but history shows that staying invested for the long term has consistently rewarded investors," he said. 

At this moment, a growing share of financial advisors say they're working to remind their clients of that bigger picture.

A Main Street disconnect

Financial advisors are likely to hear a much different sentiment from their clients than they would on Wall Street right now. The American Association of Individual Investors' sentiment survey, which asks individual investors about their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months, reported the highest percentage of bullish sentiment — 61% — since September 2022.

In contrast, Citigroup's Levkovich index, a composite of indicators like margin debt levels and the put/call ratio, which measures investor sentiment from "panic" to "euphoria," dipped slightly last week but remains in the euphoria zone.

When clients come to Nangle with concerns about the market, she's focused on providing them one thing: peace of mind. Sometimes, as was the case for a couple of her clients during the 2020 stock market crash, achieving peace of mind means making short-term adjustments to their plans. But for most of her clients, Nangle said that maintaining comfort in an uncertain market comes down to simple cash flow.

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"A lot of it comes down to planning for near-term cash flow, so if we do have a downturn, we're not suddenly looking at having to sell out in a down market," she said. "That's been pretty successful. Doesn't stop the market downturns, but it just creates some peace of mind."

Carlos Salmon, a financial advisor at Wooster Square Advisors in New Haven, Connecticut, said he is taking a similar approach to addressing client concerns right now. Maintaining strong positive cash flow is one of the most important things people need to be doing in the current environment, Salmon said.

"We've had a couple of down days in the market, so I think people are going to probably have a little bit of discomfort," Nangle said. "And that's where we reach out to our clients and earn our money, understanding what we need to do to make them feel comfortable."

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