Are Republicans really trying to kill Social Security?

At his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden parried heckling from Republicans over Social Security and Medicare.
Bloomberg/Jacquelyn Martin

At his State of the Union address, a single remark by President Joe Biden triggered a real-time policy debate with his audience.

"Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset every five years," Biden said.

Congressional Republicans immediately responded with a loud chorus of boos. Some waved their hands or shook their heads. Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene rose to her feet and shouted "Liar!"

The president responded with a sly smile.

"Anybody who doubts it, contact my office," he said. "I'll give you a copy of the proposal."

What proposal was Biden talking about? Do "some Republicans" really want Medicare and Social Security to expire? And how worried should retirees and near-retirees be?

For millions of Americans, these are major concerns. About 49 million retired workers are on Social Security, receiving an average benefit of $1,825 per month. And according to the Social Security Administration, about a quarter of elderly Americans rely on the program for at least 90% of their income. 

Medicare, meanwhile, provides healthcare coverage for 65 million people — almost 20% of the U.S. population. In 2021, the program doled out $689 billion in benefits, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Political threats aside, Social Security is already at risk of becoming insolvent. According to last year's report by the program's board of trustees, Social Security will only be able to pay out 80% of its scheduled benefits by 2035, or 74% by 2096 — unless Congress makes changes to the program or how it's funded.

So when any politician talks about allowing these two benefit programs to "sunset," the stakes are very high. Does such a proposal exist? The answer, like many things in politics, is a matter of how one interprets some very slippery language.

The day after the State of the Union, Biden explained exactly what he'd been referring to: a 2022 policy pamphlet published by Senator Rick Scott of Florida, titled "An 11-Point Plan to Rescue America." Point six includes the following two sentences: "All federal legislation sunsets in 5 years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again."

Social Security and Medicare were both enacted by federal legislation, so this can be read literally as calling for both programs to expire. But is that what Scott meant? His answer was an emphatic "no."

"He's a liar," Scott told NBC News after the speech, referring to Biden. "He's been lying about me for a year."

But plenty of Republicans besides Scott have called for ending the two safety net programs. When Mike Lee of Utah was first running for Senate in 2010, he said at a campaign event, "It will be my objective to phase out Social Security, to pull it up by the roots and get rid of it."

Since then, Lee has said he doesn't remember saying that.

"I don't recall ever having advocated for dismantling those," the senator told the Daily Herald. "That's sensitive stuff."

In the run-up to last year's election, several GOP candidates proposed ending Medicare and Social Security as public benefits. Blake Masters, running for Senator of Arizona, said "maybe we should privatize Social Security." Don Bolduc, who ran for Senate in New Hampshire, said "privatization is hugely important" for Medicare. 

J.D. Vance, on the other hand, emphasized during his Ohio Senate campaign that he no longer believed in privatizing Social Security — something he had advocated in a 2010 blog post. Tellingly, Vance won his campaign, while Masters and Bolduc lost.

Both Social Security and Medicare are extremely popular with the American electorate. One AARP poll found that 96% of U.S. adults support Social Security. And even among Republicans, according to the Pew Research Center, 54% say the government "should continue to provide programs like Medicare and Medicaid for seniors and the very poor."

With so many voters in support of these programs, is there any chance Republicans will try to do away with them? Mary Johnson, a policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League, says Americans should remain vigilant.

"I think everyone, regardless of age, should be concerned about what happens to Social Security and Medicare —  especially people who were born in 1960 and thereafter," she said in an email interview. "Social Security is a major source of retirement income for almost all recipients."

As for Scott's proposal, Johnson believes that it does call for ending the programs "in broad terms."

"While this statement doesn't specify Social Security and Medicare, it doesn't rule those programs out either," she said.

Whether that proposal could ever become law is a different question. Congress is currently divided, with Democrats narrowly controlling the Senate and Republicans narrowly controlling the House. And even if Republicans controlled both houses and enough of them supported such a bill, they'd still need the president to sign it. In his State of the Union, President Biden made it clear he'll veto any cuts to either program.

"If anyone tries to cut Social Security, I will stop them," the president said. "And if anyone tries to cut Medicare, I will stop them. I will not allow them to be taken away. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not ever."

So for Social Security and Medicare, the "sunset" appears to be a long way off.

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