Donald Trump's return to the White House is already starting to tee up a deluge of bonuses in Wall Street's corridors of power.
At Goldman Sachs Group, the prospect that investment banks and buyout shops will again be among the top beneficiaries of Trump's regulatory and tax agenda has sent its stock price soaring. If the gains hold over coming weeks, it will trigger a key threshold for David Solomon to eventually collect a special payout, which at current performance levels would be worth at least $50 million.
At buyout shop Carlyle Group, shares jumped 10% on Wednesday to their highest level under Chief Executive Officer Harvey Schwartz. If they stay near the current level for another month, it will unlock another $50 million of his signing bonus. At JPMorgan, Wednesday's rally boosted the running value of Jamie Dimon's retention package by almost $40 million, alongside roughly $190 million of gains on the stock he already holds.
Financial stocks led gains in the hours after Trump's victory, with investors betting the industry will benefit from less government resistance to corporate takeovers, lighter banking regulation and more corporate tax cuts. Dealmaking had been in a slump this year as Biden's antitrust department challenged acquisitions that might hurt consumers.
CEOs at all of the firms made significant progress toward targets in the years before Trump's victory. At TPG Inc., the stock was up 41% in 2024 before votes were tallied. The next day's 11% jump then helped push the price above the level that would unlock another $65 million of a long-term stock award for the private equity firm's CEO, Jon Winkelried.
Indeed, some payouts began lining up in the days before the election, with stocks tipping over the top just as investors began shifting bets.
At KKR & Co., bosses Joe Bae and Scott Nuttall oversaw an 80% run-up in the stock in the roughly three years through mid-October, when the Trump trade began gaining momentum. By the end of the month, the price had held a key level long enough to clinch more than $1 billion of awards apiece.
After voting results were tallied, firms including Goldman, JPMorgan and Blackstone Inc. soared to records. The KBW Bank Index of 24 major US lenders gained more than $230 billion of combined market value on Wednesday, though that has since tempered slightly. That's an instant windfall for senior executives whose annual pay packages also include equity.
Many Wall Street firms rolled out special long-term incentives for their leaders in 2021, during an extraordinary moment for the industry. Deal volumes were at a record, financiers were rushing to market with special-purpose acquisition vehicles, and retail investors were touting multimillion-dollar hauls from meme-stock trading campaigns.
Now, the market's reaction to Trump's win is helping executives hit targets as their programs approach key dates.
Among Wall Street giants, no stock jumped as much as Goldman's on the day after the election, rising 13% — the most in more than four years. Its incentive plan offers a look at how the industry structures such awards, typically linking them to shareholder returns.
Goldman's board rolled out the special longterm incentive package for Solomon and his deputy John Waldron in 2021, months after docking $10 million from the CEO's pay over Goldman's role in Malaysia's 1MDB investment fund scandal. When shareholders questioned why only the top two were getting a shot at those rewards, the board expanded the program for other senior managers.
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Half of the grants hinge on hitting stock targets. For those payouts to start, Goldman's share price plus dividends must surpass a total of $602, and then remain above that level for at least a month by late 2026. On the eve of the election, the bank was still almost $60 shy. Then on Wednesday alone, its stock jumped $69.
The other half of the payout is tied to Goldman's performance against six peers at the end of the five-year period. So far, the firm has outperformed every member of the group.
"The value of these awards won't be known" for two years and depends on meeting the other goals, said Jennifer Zuccarelli, a company spokesperson. "Right now, we're pleased with our firm's strong performance."
In any case, Solomon would have to remain at Goldman through 2026 to reap the benefits. The other firms' CEOs would also have to remain at their companies for multiple years to receive their awards.
Trump has promised to reprise signature actions from his first term, including cutting taxes and whittling regulations. His prior moves were especially lucrative for financial firms.
Unable to claim tax incentives available to many other industries, many banks captured much of the full benefit when Trump lowered the base corporate tax rate.
In the years since, the Biden administration has scrutinized the impact of mergers and sought to strengthen bank capital requirements. The efforts were intended to protect consumers and avoid financial crises, but they have dragged on the industry's profits.
